CARBUYER predicted that COE prices would rise this round and except for Cat B premiums, this increase has been borne out.

The three week break in between bidding rounds saw Cat A prices rising by $584, and this was mirrored by a $801 gain in the prices of Cat E COEs.

Cat B prices, however, slid yet again. This time marginally by $102, which begs the question of how low figure prices for this category would've hit if there hadn't been an extra week of order taking.

The general feeling, however, is that the market is already very saturated.

Komoco Motors, the local distributor for Hyundai, responded to this round's results by keeping prices for all its cars steady, which could indicate that the company sees the situation as business as usual in the current depressed market.

In addition, CarBuyer understands that new versions of some traditional Cat B stalwarts haven't been notching up as robust a set of sales figures as industry watchers have expected.

This could be due to buyers holding off for more attractively-priced, smaller engined entry-level variants or it could simply be due to delays in registrations.

If it's the latter, we should see a rise in Cat B prices within the next few rounds when the cars do come in. The product manager for a major Japanese distributorship here told CarBuyer that, ''there's no real order backlog for Cat A and a lack of interest in Cat B. There hasn't been anything really big launched lately so there's no stimulus.''

''We still have a considerable Cat B quota left, and for a new model to really make an impact it would need to consume about 20 to 30 percent of that quota, we just don't have any cars that can do that,'' he continues.

After last round's bidding, one source CarBuyer spoke to had hopes that the current school holiday would help to put people in a buying mood.

However, according to one industry watcher, ''the market is still very soft, I don't think the holidays have any real impact because if people really want to buy, they can buy anytime.''

''In fact people go away during the holidays,'' she adds. According to the industry watcher, ''buyers who need to have already replaced their cars, and as resale values are bad I expect more to wait five years before changing.''

What's in store for the next round? Well, the expectation is that Cat A premiums will drop.

As our industry watcher explains, ''when COEs go up, the small car gets affected. Small car sales are very sensitive to COE movements, and now people are used to seeing Cat A at about $16,000 or $17,000, so even a relatively small increase might put people off.''

The product manager doesn't expect things to get better very soon, adding that, ''the next three or four months should be very quiet. If people want to buy, now's the time really.''

June, 1st tender
52-week high: $28,798
52-week low: $16,897
Quota: 2,201
Bids: 2,873

THE CAT A COE premium rebounded slightly after the three-week break between bidding cycles. The reduction in quota for this round and the extra time dealers had to collect orders were the likely reasons for this increase.
A higher bid ratio of 1.30 seems to confirm this.

There have been no significant volume models launched recently for this end of the market and none scheduled in the near future so expect Cat A prices to remain at or about this level. In fact, a drop next round also seems likely.

June, 1st tender
52-week high: $30,400
52-week low: $14,002
Quota: 1,113
Bids: 1,346

CAT B COE prices continued to fall, despite the three week break. Registrations of new versions of traditionally popular models in this segment haven't exactly been brisk, according to some sources.

However, the fact that there might be a spate of new registrations down the road as orders for cars in this segment are fulfilled could help bump up Cat B prices.For now, though, the relatively healthy quota for this Cat and a lack of stimulus for buyers should continue to keep Cat B low.

June, 1st tender
52-week high: $30,301
52-week low: $17,300
Quota: 1,151
Bids: 1,654

Cat E COE premiums jumped $801 to $18,200, despite a slightly lower bid ratio of 1.43 as compared to 1.47 last round. The increase can be attributed to the rise in Cat A premiums.

Dealers tend to keep Cat E COEs on hand in order to fulfil immediate delivery promises, and Cat A cars tend to make up the bulk of several of the larger players' order books. If Cat A prices move, Cat E premiums therefore tend to rise or fall in step. Cat E's spike looks simply due to the extra week dealers had for order taking.